Satta Bazar election projections 2024: A day ahead of polling in the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha elections, the Phalodi Satta Bazar in Rajasthan has revised its estimates for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition’s INDIA bloc. While both sides maintain confidence of winning the elections, grey market estimates have emerged as a popular barometer for people to make sense of the claims in the absence of opinion or exit polls.
While the grey market estimates almost matched the BJP’s claims of the NDA winning 400 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in this election, the projections saw sharp changes as the phases progressed. Ahead of the elections that began on April 19, the Phalodi Satta Bazar had predicted over 300 seats to the BJP alone. After the first two phases of elections, the projections for the BJP fell to around 290 seats. The market revised its estimates again after the fifth phase, predicting almost 300 seats for the BJP.
In its latest estimate, the Phalodi Satta Bazar predicts less than 300 seats for the BJP while the INDIA bloc tally is projected to reach 80-85 seats. Notably, this is the highest tally projected by this betting market for the INDIA bloc so far. In its estimates on May 13, the Phalodi Satta Bazar predicted 40-42 seats for the Congress, significantly lower than its 2019 tally of 52 seats and even below its lowest-ever tally of 44 in the 2014 general elections.
UP Lok Sabha Election 2024: BJP losing ground?
According to the Phalodi Satta Bazar, the BJP is set to face a significant blow in Uttar Pradesh, a state seen as an indicator of the national mood of voters. As per its estimates, the BJP could win 55-65 seats in the state – lower than its 2019 tally of 62 seats in the 2019 elections and 71 in the 2014 polls.
The Congress and the Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, are projected to win 15-25 seats in the state, suggesting that the INDIA bloc constituents may have managed to established a stronghold in the state following two successive Lok Sabha debacles. The 2019 elections saw former UP rivals Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party join hands to take on the BJP in the state. The alliance could only win 15 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
A tally below its 2019 score would reflect poorly on the BJP which set off its campaign with a target of winning all 80 seats in UP. A poor performance in UP would also suggest that the BJP failed to sustain the momentum it had gained following the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya.
Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: Key states to watch
Besides Uttar Pradesh, key states that will be watched closely include West Bengal, Maharashtra, Bihar and Odisha. While the BJP improved its tally significantly in West Bengal, winning 18 of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state, it hopes to make further inroads in the state governed by the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress. Bengal also assumes significance in view of the losses the BJP hopes to cover from the state in case of a lower-than-expected performance in heartland states that are seen as its strongholds.
Bihar and Maharashtra, with 40 and 48 seats, respectively, will also be watched closely for the political turbulence seen since the last general elections. While Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who led the creation of the Opposition’s INDIA bloc, is now back in the NDA fold, Maharashtra also presents a unique political landscape as both regional heavyweights — the Shiv Sena and the NCP — have seen a vertical split in their ranks within the past three years.
